Unenrolled candidates hurt Alicea in special election

A quick look at the results from yesterday’s Sixth Worcester House special election suggests that the presence of the two unenrolled candidates took most of their votes from Rep. Geraldo Alicea (D-Charlton), and likely provided Rep.-elect Peter Durant (R-Spencer) with the margin of victory.

In three of the four towns that Durant won in both elections, his percentage of the vote remained remarkably consistent, while Alicea’s percentage dropped at the hands of Peter Boria (U-Charlton) and Bob Cirba (U-Spencer).

TOWN              Nov. ’10           May ‘11
                  Durant -- Alicea   Durant -- Alicea -- Others
E. Brookfield       59.8 --   40.2     61.8 --   32.6 --    5.6
Oxford              54.5 --   45.5     54.5 --   31.2 --   14.3
Spencer             59.5 --   40.5     62.0 --   31.8 --    6.2

In Charlton, the effect was less pronounced, however Durant still increased his margin over Alicea from +7% to +12%. In fact, Boria, a Charlton selectman, finished second ahead of the incumbent representative.

TOWN              Nov. ’10           May ‘11
                  Durant -- Alicea   Durant -- Alicea -- Others
Charlton            53.7 --   46.3     40.4 --   28.0 --   31.6

Only in Southbridge did the unenrolled candidates appear to take more support away from the Republican, but the effect was less pronounced than it was in the other four towns.

TOWN              Nov. ’10           May ‘11
                  Durant -- Alicea   Durant -- Alicea -- Others
Southbridge         38.3 --   61.7     30.6 --  58.9  --   10.5

The other indicator that the extra candidates hurt Alicea is that if the vote percentages from each town in the November election were used to predict the vote based on the May turnout, Alicea would have won by 165 votes. Here is the predicted vote using that method.

TOWN              Nov ’10 Percentage   May ’11       May ’11 Predicted
                  Durant -- Alicea     Turnout       Durant -- Alicea
Charlton            53.7 --   46.3       2,768        1,486 --  1,282
E. Brookfield       59.8 --   40.2         578          346 --    232
Oxford              54.5 --   45.5         339          185 --    154
Southbridge         38.3 --   61.7       3,118        1,194 --  1,924
Spencer             59.5 --   40.5       1,142          679 --    463

TOTALS                                   7,945         3,890 -- 4,055

It seems clear to me that for all of the discussion that the election should have been a straight runoff with no new candidates -- much of it from Republicans who claimed that one or both of the unenrolled candidates were “Trojan horses” drafted to hurt Durant -- the candidate that was hurt the most by the open field was soon-to-be former Rep. Alicea.