State of the Senate money race

Part one of the house analysis. Part two of the house analysis.
Now that all of the OCPF reports are in, we can get a much better idea of where the Central Mass. races for state house and senate stand and what we can expect between now and election day. Here is the breakdowns of the state senate races.

For each contested seat, I’ve listed how much cash was raised in the last two months, how much cash on hand was reported in the pre-election report, and what changes, if any, have been reported since then. Also note that the latest reports include primary donations and spending from August 20 to September 6, so those candidates who had primary opponents may have spent or raised more in this period than unopposed candidates. Incumbents are in italics.

Middlesex and Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Jamie Eldridge (D-Acton)	$23,905	$32,714	$0	$32,714
Dean Cavaretta (R-Stow)	$4,808	($397)	$0	($397)

Eldridge has spent nearly $59,000 in the last two months, with the bulk of it--$35,000--going to the Mass. State Democratic Committee for “coordinated campaign services.” He is taking no chances against Cavaretta, despite the challenger having no money to spend in the last week. Cavaretta has tried to take advantage of free media and a number of debates to make up the difference, but the inability to compete financially will likely be costly.

Middlesex and Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Mike Moore (D-Millbury)	$32,269	$74,834	$0	$74,834
Stephen Simonian (R-Auburn)	$823	$894	$0	$894

As with Eldridge, Moore does not appear to be risking inaction, outspending Simonian $32,269 to $1,779 since mid-August. Neither state party seems to be seeing a competitive race here, as they have not been involved in either campaign.

State of the House money race -- part 2

Part one is here.

Now that all of the OCPF reports are in, we can get a much better idea of where the Central Mass. races for state house and senate stand and what we can expect between now and election day. Here is the second of two breakdowns of the state house races.

For each contested seat, I’ve listed how much cash was raised in the last two months, how much cash on hand was reported in the pre-election report, and what changes, if any, have been reported since then. Also note that the latest reports include primary donations and spending from August 20 to September 6, so those candidates who had primary opponents may have spent or raised more in this period than unopposed candidates. Incumbents are in italics.

Sixth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Kathleen Walker (D-Charlton)	$10,487	$11,633	$0	$11,633
Peter Durant (R-Spencer)	$4,211	$16,417	$0	$16,417

Walker has taken in over $3,000 in PAC money in the last two months, one of the highest amounts for a non-incumbent in Central Mass. Interestingly, her campaign gave $3,000 to the State Democratic Committee, where most other campaigns have been taking donations from the state parties. Durant’s fundraising was very weak compared to other incumbents. He is also one of the few Central Mass. pols to pay for polling: he spent $2,300 on a Virginia polling firm last month.

Eighth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Robert DuBois (D-Blackstone)	$18,245	$9,115	$2,500	$11,615
Kevin Kuros (R-Uxbridge)	$9,813	$4,816	$1,500	$6,316

While DuBois appeared to have a great fundraising period, $12,100 of the $20,745 he has brought in since August 20 have been personal loans to his campaign. Another $3,400 have come from PACs, which appears to be the highest PAC contribution to a non-incumbent in Central Mass. He has spent nearly $4,000 on newspaper ads, bucking the trend of many other campaigns. In addition to his fundraising, Kuros has benefitted from almost $1,400 of inkind services from the Marlborough Republican Town Committee, which routinely funnels money from big-money GOP donors to local legislative candidates. Like Peter Durant in the Fifth Worcester race, Kuros has also spent $2,300 on polling. He also paid an Iowa firm $140 for “robocalls.” (Kudos to Kuros for actually listing them as robocalls on his campaign report.)

Fourteenth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Jim O’Day (D-West Boylston)	$19,300	$24,589	$0	$24,589
William McCarthy (R-Worcester)	$10,529	$3,489	$1,000	$4,489
Winthrop Handy (U-West Boylston)	$525	$53	$0	$53

O’Day’s campaign is more high-powered than most in the region. He’s paid his campaign manager $6,000 in the last two months. He paid another campaign staffer $1,500. He’s spent $4,000 on polling the district. He paid a professional fundraiser $1,000. Despite being a popular incumbent, he’s leaving nothing to chance. Impressively, all but $1,325 of his $19,300 raised since August have been from individual donors. Of McCarthy’s intake, $6,500 of it are personal loans to the campaign. He may be the only candidate in the region to purchase billboard space, spending $1,574 with Clear Channel to have his name in lights. All of Winthrop Handy’s contributions are from his personal funds.

Fifteenth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Mary Keefe (D-Worcester)	$9,203	$15,740	$0	$15,740
Brian O’Malley (R-Worcester)	$961	$507	$0	$507

Keefe’s heavy lifting ended when the primary was over in this heavily Democratic. While she has continued to raise money, she has only spent around $800 since September 6, and $50 of that was a donation to Lt. Gov. Tim Murray. O’Malley spent $100 on robocalls and $400 on yard signs, and that’s about it.

Seventeenth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
John Binienda (D-Worcester)	$3,005	$380,247	$0	$380,247
William LeBeau (R-Leicester)	$855	$374	$0	$374

When you’ve got over $400K in the bank for a district with about 45,000 residents, two things are clear: you don’t need to raise money, and you can spend as much as you want or need. In just two months, Binienda has spent $6,000 on mailers, $7,500 on radio ads, over $8,000 on newspaper ads, and a whopping $18,000 on a campaign consultant named Richard Wright. Bill LeBeau has done in either arena.

Eighteenth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Donald Bourque (D-Webster)	$774	$4,422	$0	$4,422
Ryan Fattman (R-Sutton)	$18,127	$64,775	$0	$64,775

Being in a populous town in a newly drawn district against a freshman incumbent should be a recipe for success. But Bourque has seen his fundraising completely dry up since August. He’s got a little money left for the stretch run, but he hasn’t received any help since August from the state committee or from PACs, which suggests that Boston doesn’t think he’s a credible threat to Fattman. The aforementioned incumbent is a prolific fundraiser. Not only did he bring in $18,127 in contributions, but he uses the Sutton Republican Town Committee as an extension of his own, taking in $6,762 in in-kind contributions from the group. The Sutton committee’s only income was a $3,000 contribution from...the Committee to Elect Ryan Fattman.

State of the House money race -- part 1

Now that all of the OCPF reports are in, we can get a much better idea of where the Central Mass. races for state house and senate stand and what we can expect between now and election day. Here is the first of two breakdowns of the state house races.

For each contested seat, I’ve listed how much cash was raised in the last two months, how much cash on hand was reported in the pre-election report, and what changes, if any, have been reported since then. Also note that the latest reports include primary donations and spending from August 20 to September 6, so those candidates who had primary opponents may have spent or raised more in this period than unopposed candidates. (Incumbents are listed in italics).

Second Franklin

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Denise Andrews (D-Orange)	$7,381	$4,039	$2,000	$6,039
Susannah Whipps-Lee (R-Athol)	$4,958	$2,880	$6,352	$9,232
Richard Schober (U-Templeton)	$47	$0	$0	$0

Andrews’ $2,000 late contribution came from the Democratic State Committee. $5,352 of Whipps-Lee’s late contribution was from her personal funds. Going back to January 1, Andrews and Whipps-Lee have each loaned over $14,000 to their respective campaigns. Whipps-Lee has also been the beneficiary of over $5,000 worth of mailers provided by the Mass GOP in the last week. Schoeber lists one in-kind contribution: lawn signs from David Roulston, a 2010 Democratic primary challenger of Andrews.

Third Middlesex

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Kate Hogan (D-Stow)	$8,100	$12,527	$0	$12,527
Chuck Kuniewich (R-Hudson)	$1,059	$781	$0	$781

Neither candidate has received money from the state parties, suggesting this race may not be that strongly contested. Over a quarter of the contributions to Hogan have been from Political Action Committees. Bucking the old adage that “political signs don’t vote,” Kuniewich spent over $4,000 of his available cash on campaign signs.

Fourth Middlesex

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Danielle Gregoire (D-Marlborough)	$3,025	$5,715	$0	$5,715
Steven Levy (R-Marlborough)	$12,777	$25,651	$0	$25,651

Levy received a $2,000 from the Republican State Committee in September, while Gregoire has yet to be buoyed by her state organization. In addition to having $25,000 available, Levy invested over $10,000 the last two months on direct mail and postage. Despite Levy’s recent fundraising prowess, he is carrying over $22,000 in loans from his personal account from campaigns going back to 2003.

Sixth Middlesex

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Carolyn Dykema (D-Holliston)	$10,975	$22,221	$0	$22,221
Marty Lamb (R-Hopkinton)	$14,275	$5,283	$0	$5,283

Lamb’s fundraising has been augmented by $3,000 from the Republican State Committee in September; Dykema has not received any such help. Lamb has also spent over $12,000 on mailers and postage in the last two months. from his personal account from campaigns going back to 2003. Dykema has spent $4,000 on consultants and at least as much on events in the district. She has not reported a direct mail campaign, but has more than enough money on hand to do so.

Second Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Jonathan Zlotnik (D-Gardner)	$3,774	$6,424	$500	$6,924
Rich Bastien (R-Gardner)	$5,978	$2,188	$1,500	$3,688

In addition to the funds here, Zlotnik has reported giving his campaign $1,600 in in-kind contributions (most candidates list their personal campaign spending as loans, not gifts). Bastien has been propped up in part by $2,450 in in-kind services provided by the Marlborough Republican City Committee, which routinely funnels money from big-money GOP donors to local legislative candidates.

Fourth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Dennis Rosa (D-Leominster)	$7,473	$13,766	$5,972	$19,738
Justin Brooks (R-Leominster)	$4,124	$9,122	$1,251	$10,373

Despite having a healthy war chest, Rosa has pumped nearly $6,000 of his personal funds into his campaign over the last two days. Rosa has taken in over $3,000 from an eclectic group of PACs, including liberal Congressman Jim McGovern’s PAC and the far-right-wing Mass. Independent PAC for Working Families among others. Brooks spent almost nothing over the last two months (just $655), and has money to spend. He’s also getting late help from the Republican State Committee, which spent $2,500 on a mailing on October 31.

Fifth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Anne Gobi (D-Spencer)	$940	$7,537	$0	$7,537
Jason Petraitis (R-North Brookfield)	$1,745	$1,010	$1,545	$2,555

This has been an extremely quiet race, with little activity reported by either candidate. Of the only $940 Gobi has raised in the last two months, $800 were from PACs. She has also spent less than $2,000. Petraitis is making a late fundraising surge, taking in over $1,500 at a fundraiser last weekend. His biggest expense has been online advertising, dropping $1,100 for ads on the Telegram & Gazette website.