Wednesday, October 31, 2012

State of the Senate money race

Part one of the house analysis. Part two of the house analysis.
Now that all of the OCPF reports are in, we can get a much better idea of where the Central Mass. races for state house and senate stand and what we can expect between now and election day. Here is the breakdowns of the state senate races.

For each contested seat, I’ve listed how much cash was raised in the last two months, how much cash on hand was reported in the pre-election report, and what changes, if any, have been reported since then. Also note that the latest reports include primary donations and spending from August 20 to September 6, so those candidates who had primary opponents may have spent or raised more in this period than unopposed candidates. Incumbents are in italics.

Middlesex and Worcester

CandidateRaised 8/19-10/19Cash on hand 10/19Late ContributionsTotal Available
Jamie Eldridge (D-Acton)
$23,905
$32,714
$0
$32,714
Dean Cavaretta (R-Stow)
$4,808
($397)
$0
($397)

Eldridge has spent nearly $59,000 in the last two months, with the bulk of it--$35,000--going to the Mass. State Democratic Committee for “coordinated campaign services.” He is taking no chances against Cavaretta, despite the challenger having no money to spend in the last week. Cavaretta has tried to take advantage of free media and a number of debates to make up the difference, but the inability to compete financially will likely be costly.

Middlesex and Worcester

CandidateRaised 8/19-10/19Cash on hand 10/19Late ContributionsTotal Available
Mike Moore (D-Millbury)
$32,269
$74,834
$0
$74,834
Stephen Simonian (R-Auburn)
$823
$894
$0
$894

As with Eldridge, Moore does not appear to be risking inaction, outspending Simonian $32,269 to $1,779 since mid-August. Neither state party seems to be seeing a competitive race here, as they have not been involved in either campaign.

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