Election Day Predictions

Here are my predictions for tomorrow's elections in Central Massachusetts...but first a couple of notes on the down ballot races listed below.

I do not think we are in for many surprises tomorrow. As I see it, only two seats will change hands. Susannah Whipps-Lee will defeat freshman Democratic incumbent Denise Andrews in the Second Franklin district. This really is an own-goal for Andrews. While she wasn't a lock to win, the whole thing about filing a bogus police report claiming that Lee had purchased cocaine turned what should have been a close-fought Andrews victory into the GOP's best chance to pick up a house seat, not just in Central Mass. but perhaps state wide. It's also telling that Andrews appears to be almost universally disliked by prominent Democrats in the district, many of whom are openly supporting her opponents.

The other seat I see changing hands is the Sixth Worcester, where I see Charlton Democrat Kathleen Walker taking the seat from freshman Republican Peter Durant. I think this could be very close--I wouldn't be stunned to see Durant hold on--but Walker has been heavily supported by Democratic interest outside the district. Combined, her campaign and outside groups have spent more money here than Durant and his backers have been able to invest. Remember that it took Durant two elections to win the seat, as the November, 2010 race ended in a tie.

There are a handful of other races that could switch parties. Leominster Democrat Dennis Rosa is very vulnerable; a defeat at the hands of Republican Justin Brooks would not be a surprise. Republican Freshmen Steven Levy and Kevin Kuros also should be in tight races and could lose their seats, though I expect them to hold on by slim margins.

None of the other state house or state senate seats should be heavily contested. On to the predictions:

US President
Electoral College: Barack Obama (D, inc.) 303, Mitt Romney (R) 235
Popular Vote: Obama 50.1%, Romney 48.6%
Massachusetts: Obama 61%, Romney 38%

US Senate
Elizabeth Warren (D) 51.5%, Scott Brown (R, inc.) 48.5%

US House -- 4th District
Niki Tsongas (D, inc.) 56%, Jon Golnik 44%
Joseph Kennedy III (D) 57%, Sean Bielat (R) 43%


Mass. Senate
Jamie Eldridge (D, inc.) over Dean Cavaretta (R)
Mike Moore (D, inc.) over Stephen Simonian (R)

Mass. House
Susannah Whipps-Lee (R) over Denise Andrews (D, inc.) and Richard Schoeber (U)
Rich Bastien (R, inc.) over Jonathan Zlotnik (D)
Kate Hogan (D, inc.) over Chuck Kuniewich (R)
Steven Levy (R, inc.) over Danielle Gregoire (D)
Carolyn Dykema (D, inc.) over Marty Lamb (R)
Dennis Rosa (D, inc.) over Justin Brooks (R)
Anne Gobi (D, inc.) over Jason Petraitis (R)
Kathleen Walker (D) over Peter Durant (R, inc.)
Kevin Kuros (R, inc.) over Robert Dubois  (D)
James O'Day (D, inc.) over William McCarthy (R) and Winthrop Handy (U)
Mary Keefe (D) over Brian O'Malley (R)
John Binienda (D, inc.) over Bill LeBeau (R)
Ryan Fattman (R, inc.) over Don Bourque (D)

Independent expenditures: the rest of the money story

Yesterday, I looked at the campaign finance reports for the candidates in contested Central Mass. house races (part one, part two), and the fights for the senate. While the reports tell a lot about the financial state of a particular race, they only tell part of the story. Another part is the role that independent groups play in sending mailings, paying for advertisements, and otherwise supporting candidates, ostensibly independent of the candidate’s campaign.

In Central Mass., Democratic candidates for house and senate have received $65,000 of support from independent expenditures in the last two weeks of the campaign, while Republicans have benefited from only $8,300 from outside groups. In some cases, the expenditures have been made in high-profile campaigns where the control of the seat has a chance of changing hands. In other cases, a tiny mailing here or there probably serves only to remind the candidate who his or her supporters are. Here is my review of independent expenditures in Central Mass. races since October 15:

Second Franklin

Denise Andrews (D-Orange, inc.)	$968
Susannah Whipps-Lee (R-Athol)	$0
Richard Schoeber (U-Templeton)	$0

The only independent expenditure in October was a small mailing from the 1199SEIU Mass. PAC advocating Andrews’ reelection. It’s a bit of a surprise that there have not been more independent expenditures given the general sense that this might be the best chance a GOP challenger has to pick up a seat in the state house. Does the lack of outside activity mean that Boston thinks Andrews has it wrapped up, or is it an indication that Whipps-Lee is a shoo-in following Andrews’ self-immolation over the bogus cocaine charges leveled against the challenger?

Third Middlesex

Kate Hogan (D-Stow, inc.)	$7,724
Chuck Kuniewich (R-Hudson)	$0

Outside groups have funded five mailers in support of Hogan in the last two weeks, including three from the Mass. Teachers Association. The 1199SEIU Mass. PAC and the SEIU Local 509 have also supported the incumbent. Kuniewich has not yet received any such support from outside groups.

Fourth Middlesex

Danielle Gregoire (D-Marlborough)	$14,787
Steven Levy (R-Marlborough, inc.)	$4,611

The good people of the ‘Boroughs are probably ready for election day, as they have been deluged with direct mail from the state house campaigns in addition to the US Senate race. Gregoire has been supported by seven mailings alone in the last two weeks: three from the aforementioned MTA, two from the statewide 1199SEIU Mass. PAC, one from the SEIU Local 509, and one from MassEquality.org. Levy has received late support from the Mass Fiscal Alliance. The indication is that both sides find this to be one seat worth fighting for.

Sixth Middlesex

Carolyn Dykema (D-Holliston)	$3,504
Martin Lamb (R-Hopkinton)	$0

All three of the mailings in support of Dykema have come from the MTA. You may be noticing a pattern: when the MTA supports a candidate, it has done so with three mailings: October 18, October 22, and October 30. Lamb has not received independent expenditure support from right-leaning groups to date.

Second Worcester
Neither Republican incumbent Rich Bastien or Democratic challenger Jonathan Zlotnik have received support from independent groups, reinforcing the idea that this is a low-profile race with little chance of changing hands.

Fourth Worcester

Dennis Rosa (D-Leominster, inc.)	$788
Justin Brooks (R-Leominster)	$0

Rosa has only received the support of one small mailing from SEIU Local 509. While many other Democrats receive support from other liberal groups such as the MTA and MassEquality.org, Rosa is one of the most conservative Democrats in the legislature and is not likely to benefit from those groups even though this race is expected to be competitive.

Fifth Worcester

Anne Gobi (D-Spencer, inc.)	$782
Justin Brooks (R-Leominster)	$0

Gobi has only received the support of one small mailing from SEIU Local 509. In previous cycles she has received support from the MTA, the Mass. Nurses Association, and the 1199SEIU Mass. PAC. This suggests that the outside groups do not see this as a competitive race, as opposed to an indication of a lack of support.

Sixth Worcester

Kathleen Walker (D-Charlton)	$9,584
Peter Durant (R-Spencer, inc.)	$0

Walker has received the supports of the three mailings from the MTA that other endorsed candidates have enjoyed, as well two mailings from the 1199SEIU Mass. PAC. Interestingly, the three mailings from the MTA were significantly more expensive than for many other Central Mass candidates, suggesting a much wider distribution in the sixth district than MTA mailings in other districts. The additional support and the lack of outside help for Durant have more than closed the fundraising gap between the two.

Eighth Worcester

Robert Dubois (D-Blackstone)	$3,014
Kevin Kuros (R-Uxbridge, inc.)	$3,731

Dubois has received the three-mailer support from the MTA. The Mass. Fiscal Alliance dropped their single, large mailing yesterday. This is one of the few races where the Republican has received more outside support than the Democrat.

Fourteenth Worcester

Jim O’Day (D-West Boylston, inc.)	$6,724
William McCarthy (R-Worcester)	$0
Winthrop Handy (U-West Boylston)	$0

O’Day has received the supports of the three mailings from the MTA that other endorsed candidates have enjoyed, as well two mailings from the 1199SEIU Mass. PAC. He also received support of a large mailing from the Mass. Nurses Association. No right-leaning group has felt an expenditure on behalf of McCarthy would be worth the expense.

Fifteenth Worcester

Mary Keefe (D-Worcester)	$1,447
Brian O’Malley (R-Worcester)	$0

Keefe has received the support of two 1199SEIU MA PAC mailings in the last month. However, she received nearly $18,000 of outside support during the contentious Democratic primary, suggesting that the outside groups know what everyone in Worcester knows: the race in this district was over on September 6.

Seventeenth Worcester

John Binienda (D-Worcester, inc.)	$1,779
William LeBeau (R-Leicester)	$0

Binienda has received support from both the statewide and local SEIU groups. My guess is that those two small expenditures are more of a lifetime achievement award than an infusion of needed support late in a campaign, since Binienda has $400K in the bank and doesn’t need the help to swamp the underfunded LeBeau. Statewide conservative groups probably believe the same thing, as they have not pitched in on the challenger’s behalf.

Eighteenth Worcester
If you look above to candidates Gregoire and Walker, you’ll see what kind of support a Democratic challenger gets against a freshmen Republican if the left-leaning groups think they have a shot to regain the seat. Compare that to Webster Democrat Donald Bourque, who has received the proverbial donut. Republican incumbent Ryan Fattman has 64,000 reasons why he doesn’t need help from conservative groups, and why it would be a waste for anyone to spend money on Bourque’s behalf.

Middlesex and Worcester Senate

Jamie Eldridge (D-Acton, inc.)	$3,166
Dean Cavaretta (R-Stow)	$0

All of Eldridge’s outside support come in the form of one mailing from the SEIU Local 509.  Cavaretta has not pulled any help from outside groups.

Second Worcester Senate

Michael Moore (D-Millbury, Inc.)	$11,017
Stephen Simonian (R-Auburn)	$0

Three mailers have been sent in support of Moore, two by the state SEIU and one from the local branch. As a senate district is roughly four times the size of a house district, three mailings cost quite a bit more than a similar effort in support of a house candidate. Simonian has not yet received outside support for his challenge.

State of the Senate money race

Part one of the house analysis. Part two of the house analysis.
Now that all of the OCPF reports are in, we can get a much better idea of where the Central Mass. races for state house and senate stand and what we can expect between now and election day. Here is the breakdowns of the state senate races.

For each contested seat, I’ve listed how much cash was raised in the last two months, how much cash on hand was reported in the pre-election report, and what changes, if any, have been reported since then. Also note that the latest reports include primary donations and spending from August 20 to September 6, so those candidates who had primary opponents may have spent or raised more in this period than unopposed candidates. Incumbents are in italics.

Middlesex and Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Jamie Eldridge (D-Acton)	$23,905	$32,714	$0	$32,714
Dean Cavaretta (R-Stow)	$4,808	($397)	$0	($397)

Eldridge has spent nearly $59,000 in the last two months, with the bulk of it--$35,000--going to the Mass. State Democratic Committee for “coordinated campaign services.” He is taking no chances against Cavaretta, despite the challenger having no money to spend in the last week. Cavaretta has tried to take advantage of free media and a number of debates to make up the difference, but the inability to compete financially will likely be costly.

Middlesex and Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Mike Moore (D-Millbury)	$32,269	$74,834	$0	$74,834
Stephen Simonian (R-Auburn)	$823	$894	$0	$894

As with Eldridge, Moore does not appear to be risking inaction, outspending Simonian $32,269 to $1,779 since mid-August. Neither state party seems to be seeing a competitive race here, as they have not been involved in either campaign.

State of the House money race -- part 2

Part one is here.

Now that all of the OCPF reports are in, we can get a much better idea of where the Central Mass. races for state house and senate stand and what we can expect between now and election day. Here is the second of two breakdowns of the state house races.

For each contested seat, I’ve listed how much cash was raised in the last two months, how much cash on hand was reported in the pre-election report, and what changes, if any, have been reported since then. Also note that the latest reports include primary donations and spending from August 20 to September 6, so those candidates who had primary opponents may have spent or raised more in this period than unopposed candidates. Incumbents are in italics.

Sixth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Kathleen Walker (D-Charlton)	$10,487	$11,633	$0	$11,633
Peter Durant (R-Spencer)	$4,211	$16,417	$0	$16,417

Walker has taken in over $3,000 in PAC money in the last two months, one of the highest amounts for a non-incumbent in Central Mass. Interestingly, her campaign gave $3,000 to the State Democratic Committee, where most other campaigns have been taking donations from the state parties. Durant’s fundraising was very weak compared to other incumbents. He is also one of the few Central Mass. pols to pay for polling: he spent $2,300 on a Virginia polling firm last month.

Eighth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Robert DuBois (D-Blackstone)	$18,245	$9,115	$2,500	$11,615
Kevin Kuros (R-Uxbridge)	$9,813	$4,816	$1,500	$6,316

While DuBois appeared to have a great fundraising period, $12,100 of the $20,745 he has brought in since August 20 have been personal loans to his campaign. Another $3,400 have come from PACs, which appears to be the highest PAC contribution to a non-incumbent in Central Mass. He has spent nearly $4,000 on newspaper ads, bucking the trend of many other campaigns. In addition to his fundraising, Kuros has benefitted from almost $1,400 of inkind services from the Marlborough Republican Town Committee, which routinely funnels money from big-money GOP donors to local legislative candidates. Like Peter Durant in the Fifth Worcester race, Kuros has also spent $2,300 on polling. He also paid an Iowa firm $140 for “robocalls.” (Kudos to Kuros for actually listing them as robocalls on his campaign report.)

Fourteenth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Jim O’Day (D-West Boylston)	$19,300	$24,589	$0	$24,589
William McCarthy (R-Worcester)	$10,529	$3,489	$1,000	$4,489
Winthrop Handy (U-West Boylston)	$525	$53	$0	$53

O’Day’s campaign is more high-powered than most in the region. He’s paid his campaign manager $6,000 in the last two months. He paid another campaign staffer $1,500. He’s spent $4,000 on polling the district. He paid a professional fundraiser $1,000. Despite being a popular incumbent, he’s leaving nothing to chance. Impressively, all but $1,325 of his $19,300 raised since August have been from individual donors. Of McCarthy’s intake, $6,500 of it are personal loans to the campaign. He may be the only candidate in the region to purchase billboard space, spending $1,574 with Clear Channel to have his name in lights. All of Winthrop Handy’s contributions are from his personal funds.

Fifteenth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Mary Keefe (D-Worcester)	$9,203	$15,740	$0	$15,740
Brian O’Malley (R-Worcester)	$961	$507	$0	$507

Keefe’s heavy lifting ended when the primary was over in this heavily Democratic. While she has continued to raise money, she has only spent around $800 since September 6, and $50 of that was a donation to Lt. Gov. Tim Murray. O’Malley spent $100 on robocalls and $400 on yard signs, and that’s about it.

Seventeenth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
John Binienda (D-Worcester)	$3,005	$380,247	$0	$380,247
William LeBeau (R-Leicester)	$855	$374	$0	$374

When you’ve got over $400K in the bank for a district with about 45,000 residents, two things are clear: you don’t need to raise money, and you can spend as much as you want or need. In just two months, Binienda has spent $6,000 on mailers, $7,500 on radio ads, over $8,000 on newspaper ads, and a whopping $18,000 on a campaign consultant named Richard Wright. Bill LeBeau has done in either arena.

Eighteenth Worcester

Candidate	Raised 8/19-10/19	Cash on hand 10/19	Late Contributions	Total Available
Donald Bourque (D-Webster)	$774	$4,422	$0	$4,422
Ryan Fattman (R-Sutton)	$18,127	$64,775	$0	$64,775

Being in a populous town in a newly drawn district against a freshman incumbent should be a recipe for success. But Bourque has seen his fundraising completely dry up since August. He’s got a little money left for the stretch run, but he hasn’t received any help since August from the state committee or from PACs, which suggests that Boston doesn’t think he’s a credible threat to Fattman. The aforementioned incumbent is a prolific fundraiser. Not only did he bring in $18,127 in contributions, but he uses the Sutton Republican Town Committee as an extension of his own, taking in $6,762 in in-kind contributions from the group. The Sutton committee’s only income was a $3,000 contribution from...the Committee to Elect Ryan Fattman.