Monday, November 5, 2012

Election Day Predictions

Here are my predictions for tomorrow's elections in Central Massachusetts...but first a couple of notes on the down ballot races listed below.

I do not think we are in for many surprises tomorrow. As I see it, only two seats will change hands. Susannah Whipps-Lee will defeat freshman Democratic incumbent Denise Andrews in the Second Franklin district. This really is an own-goal for Andrews. While she wasn't a lock to win, the whole thing about filing a bogus police report claiming that Lee had purchased cocaine turned what should have been a close-fought Andrews victory into the GOP's best chance to pick up a house seat, not just in Central Mass. but perhaps state wide. It's also telling that Andrews appears to be almost universally disliked by prominent Democrats in the district, many of whom are openly supporting her opponents.

The other seat I see changing hands is the Sixth Worcester, where I see Charlton Democrat Kathleen Walker taking the seat from freshman Republican Peter Durant. I think this could be very close--I wouldn't be stunned to see Durant hold on--but Walker has been heavily supported by Democratic interest outside the district. Combined, her campaign and outside groups have spent more money here than Durant and his backers have been able to invest. Remember that it took Durant two elections to win the seat, as the November, 2010 race ended in a tie.

There are a handful of other races that could switch parties. Leominster Democrat Dennis Rosa is very vulnerable; a defeat at the hands of Republican Justin Brooks would not be a surprise. Republican Freshmen Steven Levy and Kevin Kuros also should be in tight races and could lose their seats, though I expect them to hold on by slim margins.

None of the other state house or state senate seats should be heavily contested. On to the predictions:

US President
Electoral College: Barack Obama (D, inc.) 303, Mitt Romney (R) 235
Popular Vote: Obama 50.1%, Romney 48.6%
Massachusetts: Obama 61%, Romney 38%

US Senate
Elizabeth Warren (D) 51.5%, Scott Brown (R, inc.) 48.5%

US House -- 4th District
Niki Tsongas (D, inc.) 56%, Jon Golnik 44%
Joseph Kennedy III (D) 57%, Sean Bielat (R) 43%

Mass. Senate
Jamie Eldridge (D, inc.) over Dean Cavaretta (R)
Mike Moore (D, inc.) over Stephen Simonian (R)

Mass. House
Susannah Whipps-Lee (R) over Denise Andrews (D, inc.) and Richard Schoeber (U)
Rich Bastien (R, inc.) over Jonathan Zlotnik (D)
Kate Hogan (D, inc.) over Chuck Kuniewich (R)
Steven Levy (R, inc.) over Danielle Gregoire (D)
Carolyn Dykema (D, inc.) over Marty Lamb (R)
Dennis Rosa (D, inc.) over Justin Brooks (R)
Anne Gobi (D, inc.) over Jason Petraitis (R)
Kathleen Walker (D) over Peter Durant (R, inc.)
Kevin Kuros (R, inc.) over Robert Dubois  (D)
James O'Day (D, inc.) over William McCarthy (R) and Winthrop Handy (U)
Mary Keefe (D) over Brian O'Malley (R)
John Binienda (D, inc.) over Bill LeBeau (R)
Ryan Fattman (R, inc.) over Don Bourque (D)

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